Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Cash Civil War Drives BTC to a 1-Year Low

Holy mackerel! Out of the blue, Bitcoin dropped to a new 12-month low with little notice. Anyone hoping for a Santa Claus rally had better drop to their knees and start the Hail Marys.


Market Overview

Today Bitcoin (BTC) 00 got nuked. In fact, the entire cryptocurrency market took a direct hit from a 50 megaton hydrogen bomb — and it looks like it’ll take a while for the smoke to clear. Novogratz was wrong, Tom Lee was wrong, everyone who thought $6,000 was the bottom was wrong. Analysts will probably spend the rest of the week attempting to determine the sources responsible for the turmoil.

Currently, the most digestible explanations suggest that the current sell-off was kicked off by a combination of $6,000 representing a stop loss trigger, as well as the current Bitcoin Cash hard fork exerting pressure on an already fragile Bitcoin price.

Today’s sharp correction took Bitcoin to a 12-month low and the market cap has now dropped below $100 billion for the first time since November 2017. The total cryptocurrency market cap also dropped below $200 million for the first time this year.

Weekly Chart

The weekly chart broke bearish after a lengthy series of sideways trading. Any oversold bounce under $6,540 is just a lower high, meaning a nearly 15% bounce is needed to restore BTC 00 back to where it was yesterday. Fairly unlikely given the last 4 – 6 months of trading. Although, as mentioned yesterday with the upcoming Bitcoin Cash hard fork, ANYTHING could happen.

The MACD made a bearish cross, and the RSI has also broken from its persistent flatline and now dips toward oversold territory. A number of investors and analysts are attributing the current volatility to the BCH fork — but it should be noted that Bitcoin frequently dipped below $6,200 and $6,100 and BTC’s inability to overcome overhead resistances highlights an underlying weakness. So while surprising, today’s dip below $6,000 seemed inevitable.

$4,500 and $3,000 are the next supports to watch and the market and its multitude of analysts will decide which prices in between this range will function as psychological supports and resistances.

4-Hour Chart

There’s not too much to say here that hasn’t already been said. The lack of resistances below the $6,200 – $6,100 zone allowed BTC to drop like a blade through butter, and BTC price is now lower than it was on November 12 of 2017.

Traders might think twice about playing oversold bounces as bears are clearly in control and the current downtrend is still young. The RSI, Stoch, and MACD could easily become extremely oversold and given that a family feud over BCH might be fuelling the entire market downturn, analysis of charts may provide limited value for time being.

The wisest thing to do might be to watch from the sidelines and enjoy the free BCH-SV coins that will be earned by BCH holders. Alternatively, savvier traders might take note of the spread between USD and stablecoin (USDT, Paxos, TrueUSD) or the $300 Bitcoin 00 premium that exists between Bitfinex and Coinbase.

Bon Arbitrage, Mes Amis!  

[Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are not intended as investment advice. Market data is provided by Bitfinex. The charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.]

Why do you think Bitcoin dropped 15%? Share your thoughts below!


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Trading View. Market data sourced from Bitfinex.

Markets Update: Bitcoin Cash Price Rally Stalls but Trade Volume Spikes Hard

Markets Update: Bitcoin Cash Price Rally Stalls but Trade Volume Spikes Hard

Markets and Prices

There are less than two days left until the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) network faces a contentious hard fork and BCH markets are showing some unusual activity. They are being driven by heavy trading volumes that have doubled in the last two days, while BCH/USD short positions on Bitfinex have touched an all-time high. At the moment, bitcoin cash is trading for $529 per coin with more than $900 million worth of global swaps in the last 24 hours.

Also read: Cryptocurrency ATM Growth Spikes Exponentially to 4,000 Machines Worldwide   

Cryptocurrency Rally Stalls

As news.Bitcoin.com stated during our last markets update, all eyes are on bitcoin cash prices before the pending fork and this is still the case. On Tuesday, Nov. 13, the overall cryptocurrency economy is valued around $214 billion with over $13.3 billion in global trade volume over the last day. Currently, bitcoin core (BTC) prices are hovering around $6,359 with a market valuation of about $110.4 billion. BTC prices are down 0.64% over the last 24 hours and down 0.95% for the last seven days. The second highest valued market held by ethereum (ETH) is valued at $21.5 billion today and one ETH is swapping for $209. Ripple (XRP) has dipped in value as well and the token is down 0.12% over the last 24 hours. Spot markets show one XRP is trading for $0.52 and ripple trade volume is around $579 million. Lastly, stellar (XLM) markets are down quite a bit as markets have lost over 3% today and one XLM is trading for $0.26.

Markets Update: Bitcoin Cash Price Rally Stalls but Trade Volume Spikes HardTop 10 digital asset markets on Nov. 13, 2018, 12:00 p.m. EST.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Market Action

Even though it looks as though some of last week’s BCH spurred digital asset rally has stalled, a lot is going on behind the scenes. One BCH is trading for $527 per coin and the total market valuation is around $9.9 billion this Tuesday. According to statistics, bitcoin cash has the fourth largest trade volume just below tether (USDT) and ETH. This is because BCH trade volume has spiked considerably over the last day as the 24-hour volume is steadily approaching $1 billion. The trading platforms swapping the most BCH today include Lbank, Okex, Binance, Hitbtc, and Bitfinex. BTC is the largest pair trading with BCH and captures 39.5% of the market. This is followed by USDT (30.9%), USD (12.4%), ETH (7.1%), and QC (3.8%).

Markets Update: Bitcoin Cash Price Rally Stalls but Trade Volume Spikes HardBitcoin cash daily chart on Nov. 13, 2018, at 12:00 p.m. EST.

BCH/USD Technical Indicators

Looking at the BCH/USD 4-hour chart and the daily on Bitfinex and Bitstamp shows BCH bears have managed to push the bitcoin cash price down and suppress the value over the last few hours. Similar to our last markets update, the short term 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is still well above the long-term 200 SMA trendline. This confirms the path toward the least resistance is still the upside at the time of writing. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index oscillator is meandering in the middle (44-56) and not giving much indication toward the next move.

Markets Update: Bitcoin Cash Price Rally Stalls but Trade Volume Spikes HardBCH/USD Bitfinex 4-hour. Nov. 13, 2018.

Order books show bulls need to surpass the current suppression and prices above the $560 range to gain some more leeway. On the backside, order books show some solid foundations between the current vantage point and $485. Again, there is a massive buy wall at $445 which could hold for a decent period of time. However, the moving averages and current MACd show things may not be so dismal in the short term and the massive trade volume injected in the BCH ecosystem in the last 24 hours suggests a quick and unexpected trend change could definitely be in the cards.

Markets Update: Bitcoin Cash Price Rally Stalls but Trade Volume Spikes HardBCH/USD 30-min. on Bitstamp. Nov. 13, 2018.

Chain Split Token Markets and Short Positions

As mentioned above, the clock is ticking towards the pending Bitcoin Cash network fork slated for Thursday, Nov. 15. Additionally, BCH/USD short positions on Bitfinex are still riding extremely high at the moment with people betting the currency’s value will plummet. Yet some traders believe the massive BCH daily trade volume coupled with short positions at an all-time high is a recipe for danger for margin traders without equity and many short positions could get “rekt.”

Markets Update: Bitcoin Cash Price Rally Stalls but Trade Volume Spikes HardBCH/USD short positions on Bitfinex. Nov. 13, 2018.

Many traders have also been watching the BCH futures markets on Poloniex with BCH-ABC and BCH-SV being swapped against USDC and BTC pairs. At the moment, BCH-ABC is trading for $385, USDC and BCH-SV is around $139 per token. Moreover, Bitfinex has announced introducing new “chain split tokens” (CSTs) on Nov. 13 allowing traders to swap futures with the CSTs that have the dedicated ABC and SV symbols “BAB” (ABC implementation) and “BSV” (SV implementation). It’s safe to say that lots of eyes will continue to remain focused on the BCH market activity and possible reaction before the fork.

Where do you see the price of bitcoin cash and other coins headed from here? Let us know in the comments section below.

Disclaimer: Price articles and markets updates are intended for informational purposes only and should not to be considered as trading advice. Neither Bitcoin.com nor the author is responsible for any losses or gains, as the ultimate decision to conduct a trade is made by the reader. Always remember that only those in possession of the private keys are in control of the “money.”


Images via Shutterstock, Trading View, and Satoshi Pulse.


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Poloniex Requires 2,000 Confirmations for Bytecoin Transactions

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If you want to trade Bytecoin on Poloniex, you’re going to have to wait a significant amount of time, CCN has learned.

This reporter decided to enter the BCH pre-fork trading at the exchange and wanted to use his Bytecoin holdings as part of that process. He withdrew them from where they were held and properly made the deposit, using the payment ID required by Poloniex and paying the requisite transaction fees. Hours after other deposits had cleared and coins had been converted to pre-fork BCHABC and BCHSV tokens, the Bytecoin had still not arrived.

In Bytecoin standard transactions, 10 confirmations is considered confirmed. This is 4 more than most cryptocurrencies, and occasionally blocks hang for sometime as a result of a sometimes unreliable mining network which switches between Monero, Bytecoin, and other CryptoNight coins. So after somewhere between 6 and 10 hours, this reporter became concerned.

Had he clipped the payment ID or the address, or something? Entirely possible. So he checks – no, that’s correct. Not seeing the deposit, he contacted Poloniex support, and got the following response:

Hi Paul,

Thanks for reaching out!

The minimum confirmations for BCN have been increased temporarily (to 2000) due to network instability. As a result, BCN deposits may take longer than usual to be available.

If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact us again.

Best,

Poloniex Support Team

3.5 Day Deposit

2000 confirmations. At time of writing, Bytecoin had about 24 blocks in the past hour. Sometimes they happen within a minute of each other, and sometimes they happen hours apart. But if 24/hour is a normal rate, that would mean a deposit time of nearly 84 hours – 3 ½ days.

The author’s deposit was not even halfway there at time of writing.

Poloniex is one of the major exchanges that lists Bytecoin, but not the only. Had the author known of the “temporary” change in confirmation requirement, which support did not explain in any more detail, he could have used another such exchange to convert to BCH in advance of the fork. As things stand, he might be cutting it mightily close.

For those wondering what Bytecoin is, it is the first implementation of the CryptoNight/CryptoNote protocol. Initially, Monero was a fork of Bytecoin, although at this point it would be fair to say that Monero has taken the lead in terms of development in both technical and market manners. Both coins are considered “privacy coins.”

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